2024 Playoffs

[Sdevils42]

Mixed bag last week, unposted plays

Hou +2, should've taken the ML.
KC ML/Phins +7.5 parlay, didn't see Miami's offense completely shitting the bed but that's on me.
GB +7, biggest bet of the weekend. Knew it would be close but didn't see result coming.
Det -3, right side imo, some unfortunate things made it a 1 point game.
Pitt +10, again think it was the right side and would've been outside of a Pickens fumble that immediately led to 6.
Birds -3, stupid pick, totally on me. Believed they'd right the ship after completely collapsing down the stretch.

Extensive Divisional Round write-ups:

Hou/Bal - the only game w/ reverse line mvmt at the moment. Looks like most of the bets are on Hou yet the line went up a full point. Was on them last week at home, Stroud is an emerging top 5 QB imo. I just think it's a big step up in class offensively and defensively. Whereas vs CLE the Texans needed to focus on stopping Garrett, BAL gets their pressure across the entire DL, also a big step up in LB play for BAL too. The other factor imo is the health of the HOU WR... they're essentially down to Collins and Schultz, Dell is out for year and Metchie and Woods are banged up. I lean Balty in this game although I hate going against CJ.
Lean Baltimore -9.5

SF/GB, with you here. Think this is another step up in class. GB was able to run effectively on DAL who has had issues all year stopping running attacks and that opened up the play action and confusion on DAL backend. SF doesn't have that issue, if they make them one dimensional I think the SF pass rush will be able to tee off on Love. I think SF will be able to run effectively which opens up everything Shanny wants to do. Shanahan vs Barry is the biggest mismatch of this round imo. 9.5 seems like a lot to the public for a GB team that just beat a very high profile team in DAL.
Play on SF -9.5


DET/TB, this to me is the toughest game to cap... recency bias would point to TB. But imo Philly was a sinking ship, I counted about 45 missed tackles on defense and a horrendous game plan with no adjustments made on offense. Philly was able to run pretty effectively on the first drive and then just abandoned it completely letting Hurts who isn't the best pocket passer in the league drop back and throw 40+ times. And not taking too much from it but it just flat out looked like most of Philly just simply didn't want to be there, uninspired play. I think DET will be able to run on TB which will take the pressure off Goff. I think DETs OL will be able to protect Goff and adjust to Bowles blitz scheme. Conversely I think TB will be able to throw effectively as Stafford just showed but will not be able to run effectively. If you make a team one dimensional.... plus from watching on TV last weekend, Detroit has the best home field advantage. Place was rocking, LA had to take multiple ill timed TOs which can only be attributed to the crowd noise.
Lean DET -6.5

KC/BUF, this line is either a gift or the biggest sucker bet of the wknd. KC getting points in the playoffs, doesn't happen often if ever. All I keep seeing is Mahomes/Allen is the greatest QB rivalry in the NFL, the next Brady/Manning... What a crock of shit haha, do the Bengals and Joe Burrow not exist anymore? KC and Mahomes are 2-0 vs Allen's Bills in the playoffs. KC seems to be peaking at the right time yet again although I think that W vs Miami was a bit inflated. The weather really played with Miami both mentally and physically. I didn't think the Bills W was all that impressive. Pitt made a ton of mistakes, missed tackles, drops, fumbles etc... Difficult to take that into account fully but KC defense is aggressive, doesn't mix tackles and comes with exotic coverages and pressures that can fool Allen. For as great as he is physically I'm still not convinced he can read defenses pre and post snap all that well. I think Spags will be able to confuse him into a bad turnover or more. KC gets Pacheco back and Bolton will be healthier than he was in the first meeting. The key to stopping Allen's runs is LB play and gap control by the DL. I think KC wins a one score game.
Play on KC +2.5

 

[Sdevils42]

3-1 last week. Only miss was on SF. Took them -10 at kick then live bet Pack at -3.5 when they were up and next play Love throws his first pick. Stupid, stupid, STUPID compulsive bet.

Ravens -9.5, medium sized wager hit.
SF -10, live bet GB -2.5, stupid!
Lions -6, biggest bet of the weekend. 2pt conversion in the 4Q made me sweat a bit.
KC +2.5, should've just played ML, 2nd biggest bet of the weekend. Imagine taking Josh Allen in a big game lollll.


Bal/KC - KC is hot, offense appears back on track. Now was that a result of Buffalo being banged up coupled with the fact that they continuously lay eggs vs elite competition in the playoffs. Drops killed them yes and the fake punt was an awful decision despite the look. Despite all of that bad fortune the defense forced a goal line fumble and Allen had the ball in his hands with a chance to milk the clock and win the game without giving Mahomes the ball back... how'd that work out...?

Now I mentioned all of that because I do ultimately think KC was fortunate to win that game. Run defense was gashed in the 1H and had trouble adjusting to the check down game the Bills employed in the 1H. Despite what the media presents Buffalo is far inferior to Baltimore. Baltimore plays tough, aggressive, hard nosed football especially on defense as does KC. Difference to me is Baltimore is pretty healthy outside of Humphrey who also didn't play last week. Andrews is active which is why I assume the line jumped a .5 point. I think Baltimore will be able to run either with the RBs or Jackson. Too many options on offense finally, Flowers, Beckham, Andrews, Likely, Bateman. Difficult going against Mahomes and he's an underdog for the second consecutive week, would assume the public would be rushing to bet KC again catching points after beating a highly overrated Bills team. I think Thuney being out will be massive. Baltimore has a great DL as a unit, no one guy stands out except Madubuike.

Baltimore -4 (Large), would take them all the way up to -6.5.


SF/DET - Detroit to cover and SF to win... have been quite successful with these parlays. If Deebo doesn't play I think it's a big deal although giving Shanahan a full week to gameplan without him vs losing him on the first series is a big difference. SF will score if Purdy can at least be competent. It's well known the Lions secondary is horrendous and having 11, 15, 85, 22 and possibly 19 as options paired with Shanny's game plan tells me they can score. I do wonder about 22 rushing vs Detroit as they have slowed down some running teams but TB and LA ran it at will. The matchup I do like is the DET offense vs SF defense. Imo the SF defense is highly overrated, a collection of big names that doesn't live up to expectations. The narrative on Goff is the difference between dome vs outside splits without taking into account opponents and weather in those games, there is no weather issue in Santa Clara on Sunday. Also he gets skittish in the pocket w/ pressure. That I believe is true but the SF pass rush despite the names of Bosa and Young haven't really been getting home. I also think they'll be able to establish the run with Montgomery and Gybbs. DET has a top 3 OL although they're dealing with injuries. Expect Ragnow to play but if he's out I'm not sure I bet this game. I think SF ultimately wins but DET keeps it within 7.5.

DET +7.5, SF ML